Visions of the Middle East, meeting with Anna Momigliano. Q: I would start from Gaza. In Gaza, Hamas controls, but there are the aims of the PNA, Israel's fears, running away from and to Egypt, missiles towards Sderot, and tired people militant yet convinced. What is Gaza, because this city and its "Strip" have this burden in the Middle East?
M. The history and geography have condemned the Gaza Strip to be a place and at the same damn crucial for the Middle East. Until 1967, the Gaza Strip has been annexed to Egypt. Not everyone remembers that in fact the original design for the UN partition of Palestine was very different from today - and far more sensible, since provided a sort of territorial continuity. But in 1948 the Arab countries have flooded the present Palestinian Territories: the Jordanians have taken the West Bank, Gaza, the Egyptians. From there began the problems. During the Six Day War, Israel has in turn conquered Gaza and the West Bank ... a very serious mistake. The deadly mix of events was now the Palestinians, who understandably do not have no intention of going back under the domination of the Arab countries and equally understandably have had enough of the Israeli occupation, they want their own state in those territories.
But geography is a tyrant: Gaza is a small strip of land (40 km for 15, index), which alone can not be a sustainable State. And that is now completely isolated from Israel, Egypt and West Bank. The isolation also makes the living conditions of the population in Gaza disastrous: a fertile ground for extremists. This establishes a vicious circle. More terrorist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad are consolidated, plus Israel and Egypt isolate the Gaza Strip. Over the Strip isolated, more terrorists are consolidated. For Israel, Gaza has become a nightmare: the bombing of civilians are terrible, the population feels abandoned by the government. Gaza, then, is a nightmare for the Arab countries. Right now the only way out seems to Egypt: Cairo should open the borders and integrate its economy in Gaza. But the Mubarak government, that this is not entirely wrong, fear the infiltration of extremists in Egypt, and then the borders are tightened. Honestly, I do not see well.
D: Hamas's landslide victory in the election, then lost control of the West Bank and has continued his hard-line right from Gaza. How much popular support as well as external and how much inner strength have Hamas?
M. I think it is difficult to draw a clear picture of consensus in the Strip. When I was in the West Bank, just before the civil war in Gaza, I saw a very civil society hostile to Hamas, but also disappointed by the PLO and Fatah. What worries me, I must say, is the progressive clearance of Hamas to my Italian colleagues: I know a couple who privately admit to be real fans. I will not go in the discourse "to negotiate or not negotiate with Hamas, even as I am convinced that the question is not whether to talk to a terrorist, but what about a terrorist. I think that in Italy today to enjoy a consensus outside Hamas much stronger than you think. Having said that, after Annapolis, the international community seems to have more confidence in the PLO: it seems that Abu Mazen and Olmert are finally able to make some progress. This removes the grounds for Hamas.
D. The territories are split into two. Hamas and Fatah are becoming more distant. What or who can bring a unique vision of the territories and at this point, even the Palestinian people?
M. Big problem! The issue is political, but also geographic. Hamas and Fatah to agree might be possible. We know that both sides are deeply divided internally. The most extreme wing of Hamas, the one who is in Damascus seems increasingly distant from the wings more "moderate" (an expression that must be taken with forceps) in the Territories. Inside there is a generation younger Fatah then tries to fight the corruption of the old guard. Perhaps the "young Turks" Fatah will one day find an agreement with the less intransigent wing of Hamas. Maybe. But this would also mean setting aside Abu Mazen and his men, who are now the only guarantee of stability. And they hold a peace process that is finally starting. The Palestinian people are also divided geographically: between Gaza and the West Bank, Israel is all in between! Even if you were a connecting corridor, in fact remain two separate entities. For a future Palestinian state would be a big problem. Again, the only way to get out of isolation and Gaza that Egypt take on greater responsibilities. With all the risks involved.
D. After Annapolis, Israel and Palestinian Authority have begun to re-discuss peace plans. E 'unthinkable to lay the foundations for peace and compromise after which the colonies and the possible sale of the West Bank?
The sale of the West Bank and the withdrawal of settlements are necessary for peace. But unfortunately this does not mean that, once retired soldiers and settlers, Israel gets less violence from the Palestinians. We saw this with the Gaza Strip: Israeli have retired, and Hamas responded by bombing. In turn, Israel has reacted to the bombing with other bombings, and so we
to the starting point.
That said, the outlook in the West Bank are different: it is a withdrawal agreement with local authorities, and I doubt that the troops have PNA going to react violently to a withdrawal. But history has shown that the extremists are not satisfied with the withdrawal of the settlements, when and if Israel leaves the West Bank, there will certainly be elements of which it interpreted as a sign of weakness and attack.
remains to be seen as Abu Mazen will be able to hold off Hamas and the radical factions of the PLO. And we that we do not know. I am favorable to the withdrawal, but who says that it is likely to transform the West Bank into a realm of Hamas, unfortunately, has its reasons.
D. Despite Iran's provocations, there is a Middle East tired of wars. How they live and what they hope the two nations (Israel and Palestine) in the daily expectations of peace ever more substantial shape?
M. More than anything else I can talk about the Israelis. It 'a people tired of fighting. There is a great desire for peace, but also very pessimistic for the first time in a long time, people really are afraid that their country is canceled at any moment.
D. The Israeli and American enemy. Enemy to Hamas, Hezbollah and Lebanon, to Iran. What is the near future of Israel and the future of its American alliance?
M. Well, to begin it must be said that Lebanon is not a hostile country to Israel, the problem is Hezbollah and Syria! Relations between the Israeli and Lebanese governments are certainly not good, but I see no risk of war. However, Israel is opening a period of reflection: the country has to deal with enemies from the growing military capabilities. The threat is from the axis Shiite Iran, with its bomb Hezbollah with the bombing raid and by land, Syria, which supports Tehran and Hezbollah. At this moment we are working on Syria in an attempt to open negotiations and to break the axis: some Annapolis has already worked.
The alliance with the U.S., a bit 'will depend on who the White House. But the feeling is that, after Iraq, America is much weaker in the Middle East. This means that Israel can count on less protection.
Anna Momigliano born in Milan in 1980, has lived in Israel and the United States. A degree in anthropology (University of Pennsylvania '02), began working at the Daily Pennsylvanian, then moved to the sheet and cooperate in the foreign section of The Reform in the Middle East. He currently writes for Economy.
Source: http://ilparoliere.ilcannocchiale.it
